In follow up to yesterday’s post (please read it first), I have gotten clarification from the park that the pie chart and the bar graphs represent the total number of permit APPLICATIONS that recreation.gov has received as of March 19.
The total number of permits this represents is 12,000. So, the worse case is 12,000 x 6 = 72,000 people trying for permits for all summer. There are only going to be 300 permits available to day hikers per day all summer. So the 136 season days yield 40,800 permits that the 72,000 people are competing for. AND we still have a week of applications yet to come in.
Based on past surveys and studies, most groups hiking Half Dome are 4-somes. So with that figure, realistically, 12,000 x 4 = 48,000 (not 72,000) competing for the 40,800 possible permits. BUT, in many groups of 4, each person is submitting requests for 4 permits with a different Trip Leader on each application. So logically, when one in a group wins 4 permits the 3 others will cancel their 12 permits. Stoichiometric analysis yields the result that MANY more permits maybecome available for each”mini-lottery” for 2-days later trips – if the park will put those into the pool with their proposed 50 per day.
Bottom line – don’t give up trying even if you don’t “win” the April 13 lottery. And if you do win, please cancel your excess permits so others can make it to the top. And thank the flaming 2011 scalpers for this headache.
Unrelated thought worth quoting: “Long as I remember, the rain been coming down. Clouds of mystery pouring confusion on the ground. Good men through the ages, trying to find the sun; and I wonder, still I wonder, who’ll stop the rain? – Creedence Clearwater Revival
*MrHalfDome™ – Rick Deutsch – www.HikeHalfDome.com