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More stats on Half Dome Permit Lottery

Up the Sub Dome steps – 400 ft worth

Over 17,000 applications were received by recreation.gov for summer Half Dome permits, requesting approximately 75,500 permits of the 41,100 permits available by lottery. Most of these permit request were for May, June and July. Weekends are pretty much sold out, but I suspect there will be a truck load of cancelled permits since many applicants had each person in their group apply. So multiple winners will be cancelling out at least 2 days in advance to recoup their $5.00 each permit.  I tried for a Monday in June and got zapped …. but will go to the park anyway and try the mini-lottery.  Permits cannot be sold, so don’t ask here. I support the park and won’t contribute to scalpers. Plus it’s against the law.

The demand for permits mid-week starting in mid-August were BELOW the allocated supply of 300 per day. If you can go then – do it!!  August is great (just be cautious of thunderstorms) and I love September – sun doesn’t set until about 7, the crowds are gone and weather is pleasant. October can be dicey as winter in the  mountains arrives early. I did it …

Post Half Dome Lottery Advice

Congrats to all those who won permits!!

Resale of a permit is a violation of Title 36, Code of Federal Regulations, section 1.6.

I’ve gotten many emails from people who did not win inquiring how to get them now. It’s not like in 2010 and 2011. Because the sum-bag scalpers were reselling permits for $60-$100 each, the Park has the process where whoever bought the tickets as TRIP LEADER (or the named alternate) MUST be on the trip with an ID to show the ranger at Sub Dome. Also, everyone in the group must arrive at the Sub Dome together and pass “Checkpoint Charlie” together. Sorry, but there is no way to get a permit other than the 2-day lottery. This is how it works:

50 permits will be available each day by lottery during the hiking season. Cancelled permits will also be added to this inventory. These permits will be available based on the estimated rate of under-use and cancellation of permits (the exact number may change through the summer). The daily lotteries will have an application period two days prior to the hiking date with a notification late that night. (So, to hike on a Saturday, you would …

Half Dome Cables Lottery Analysis

And so we wait. If you got your permit application in by March 31 you now sit on your hands until maybe April 13 to see if you won. Well, the Super Jumbo Gargantuan Lotto had odds about the same. So we wait and roll the dice.

Here are the day-of-week spreads based on applications thru March 28. Gee, Thursdays seem to be a slam dunk.

In June and July, Saturdays got over roughly 3500 individual permits requested – for the 300 slots. Good luck – if you end up getting one, also buy a lottery ticket. You must be blessed.

<Click to enlarge>  It looks like June 28 is the most popular day with close to 1800 primary requests (recall that you can ask for up to 7 dates). Guess many of you will be doing Clouds Rest instead. It’s the “new” Half Dome!! Click <HERE> to check on the dates you put in.

Other news: The Central Sierra snowpack is about 50% of normal to date. While not good for the water supply, it may be good for folks who get permits for Half Dome right when the cables are projected to go up – …

Half Dome cables permit process Update 3/24

In follow up to yesterday’s post (please read it first), I have gotten clarification from the park that the pie chart and the bar graphs represent the total number of permit APPLICATIONS that recreation.gov has received as of March 19.

The total number of permits this represents is 12,000. So, the worse case is 12,000 x 6 = 72,000  people trying for permits for all summer. There are only going to be 300 permits available to day hikers per day all summer. So the 136 season days yield 40,800 permits that the 72,000  people are competing for. AND we still have a week of applications yet to come in.

Based on past surveys and studies, most groups hiking Half Dome are 4-somes. So with that figure, realistically, 12,000 x 4 = 48,000 (not 72,000) competing for the 40,800 possible permits. BUT, in many groups of 4, each person is submitting requests for 4 permits with a different Trip Leader on each application. So logically, when one in a group wins 4 permits the 3 others will cancel their 12 permits. Stoichiometric analysis yields the result that MANY more permits maybecome available  for each”mini-lottery” for 2-days later trips – if the park will put …

Half Dome permits – the odds

The park has done a very good service this year by posting the number of applications for Half Dome permits and bar graphing them. First, here’s a pie chart showing the summer “day of the week” applications. (As of March 19)

Next, look at the request load for June…notice the spikes on Saturdays. 

Now look at August… gee, very few applications. 

If you look at the whole page <HERE>, you’ll see way fewer applications later in the summer. It’s as if everyone wants to do the hike early – or they cannot firm up plans to go that far in advance.

What is missing is an explanation of what we are looking at. Are they graphing “applications” or the number of permits being asked for. A big difference. Since the vertical axis is scaled to “300” – the number of day hikers allowed, I’d think it’s the total number of PERMITS being asked for each day. Not the number of submitted applications (which could range from 1 to 6 permits). I’ll ask my park contacts for clarification. Bottom line – hike mid-week and later in the summer.

Unrelated thought worth quoting: “Ground Control to Major Tom: …

Half Dome Stewardship Plan chatter

In the press today was a story about the Tuolumne County Supervisors who have taken a postion that 600 permits should be allowed on Half Dome. See <HERE>.  

 Wanna see why your odds of getting a Half Dome permit for a Saturday are going to be astronomical? Open this park summary of the number of applications so far. Remember, only 300 hikers per day will be drawn. Yikes! Click <HERE>. 

Action:  Get the Half Dome Stewardship Plan  and read it. 132 pages of love and angst.  Then send in your comments by March 15 using this form. This is what they are looking for. Not rants, but specifics in these areas: 

1. Identify incomplete or incorrect information.
2. Offer reasons why a particular alternative or plan element would or would not work.
3. Offer a reasonable, new plan element or completely new alternative that could help accomplish the stated goals.
4. Point out discrepancies between legal mandates and proposals.
5. Highlight deficiencies in the analysis of environmental consequences.
6. Provide information on how you use the park and how particular proposals in the planning document would affect that use.

 Need a Half Dome TShirt?  Check the STORE…

Half Dome cables lottery update March 5, 2012

A lot of people jumped at entering the cables lottery on March 1. By the 3^rd, close to 4500 applications were in. As you would think, they were mostly for Saturdays. The hint here is to go ahead and take a vacation day or two and go mid-week. It looks like the park is deferring to recreation.gov for implementing the lottery applications and permit distribution.

Although the actually drawings will take place in early April, the NPS is still looking at the implementation. We will probably get our “award” as an acceptance letter. This is NOT your permit. Rec.gov will instruct you to printout your actual “permit” sheet. CAUTION: Do not do this until you are really ready to go. Once the permit is printed, you cannot get a refund. If you have to cancel one of your hikers, you need to go through the rec.gov normal process for cancelling – like CALL THEM. They will reissue you a new permit PDF that will have the new number of hikers and you’ll print and take that. I’d suggest you do this while still near a printer.

Since the number in your party is set, only the Trip Leader…

Half Dome lottery update March 2

Ladies and Gentlemen – Boys and girls of all ages –>

After 2 days of the Half Dome lottery application process – the rec.gov site seemed to be working just fine. Records show that about 4500 people submitted applications. The bulk were requesting Saturdays. So your odds are way better mid-week.

Also, don’t over buy – if the HAL-9000 computer picks you for a “win,” and you are asking for 6 permits and they only have 5 left – you will NOT get one.

For the youth in the audience – “G2″ is a Cold War term for intelligence – did you read about the Cold War in school? That was when Russia and the US were going to annihilate each other.

And the HAL-9000 was the “smart” computer from the movie 2001, a Space Odyssey that came out last century. It was very good – despite the odd ending. Rent it.

Unrelated thought worth quoting: “Traveling in a fried-out combie on a hippie trail, head full of zombie I met a strange lady. Sshe made me nervous. She took me in and gave me breakfast . And she said, ‘Do you come from a land down under? Where women …

Day 1 of Half Dome Cables Lottery

Well, it has started. The first day of the magic lottery to allow you to hike almost 8  miles to the base of Sub Dome and show your permit to the smiling ranger. If all your party is with you and your Trip Leader shows an ID to verify he/she bought the permits, you are free to scale the backside of the signature landmark of Yosemite. Awesome.

Like I said last night, I am going to wait until the dust settles. Too many blips can occur until it all gets sorted out. And yes, the flubs have already started. Here’s what Tara said in a comment if you missed it:

“I see no way to apply for a permit from recreation.gov website. I can pick a date for a permit and enter number in my group, but I get a message that says ‘these permits cannot be issued from this website.’ There’s no option to enter the lottery.”

Upon checking, I’m not sure where Tara was…but here is a screenshot of the lottery page on recreation.gov…..hmmmm  looks ok to me.  Anyone else ????

But there is NO reason to apply now – same poor odds as if you wait until …

Half Dome cables lottery update 2/29/2012

On March 1 the window opens to apply for a permit via the 2012 Lottery. There is NO rush to be doing this on March 1. You have all of March to apply. You get no “points” for applying early. The lottery will be conducted in early April.

I went to the recreation.gov site to scope the beast out.

I suggest you set up an account and review the process. Finding the Half Dome page is not obvious. On the home page, go to the left and search “Yosemite” then “Permits and Wilderness” it will take you to a page that says this below. (I copied it here to save you time.)  It will not be active until tomorrow, March 1. I am going to wait several days for the recreation.gov site to be stable and get the bugs out. The last 2 years there were many issues and the staff of the vendor had no clue as to the process.  Comment back when you try it.

Half Dome Permit LOTTERY information:

Application period opens MARCH 1, 2012!

The National Park Service has extended the interim permit system for climbing the cables on Half Dome that begun in 2010. …